ECP NetHappenings Latest AI tech to analyze private credit by going loan-by-loan

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ECP NetHappenings Latest AI tech to analyze private credit by going loan-by-loan

@TFTC21
One guy with AI and public SEC filings just exposed what a $31.5 billion private credit fund doesn’t want you to see.

Flawless 41-month streaks, Sharpe ratios beating Madoff’s own fabrication, “safe” private credit for pensions!?

One guy with public filings uncovers 50 hidden non-accruals on AI-killed borrowers marked at par, self-valuations, and $13T in conflicted homework with 20-50x insurance leverage.

Institutions get paid more when the marks go higher, your annuity is just collateral in their game.

@nicknemo17 used the latest AI tech to analyze private credit by going loan-by-loan.

@NickNemo17
no fund, no credentials, no institutional backing, parsed the filings for Cliffwater. What he found should terrify anyone with a pension or an annuity.

The fund reports a 41-month win streak. Zero losing months. A Sharpe ratio of 3.75. For context, Bernie Madoff, who could pick any number he wanted because he was fabricating returns, chose a Sharpe of 3.5. That’s how Harry Markopolos caught him. The returns were too smooth.

Nick found 50 non-accruals using public filings. The fund reports zero. He found loans marked at par on businesses that have been “functionally eliminated by AI and Google.” Borrowers paying 10.6% all-in on debt they can never service. No structural protection, every dollar of loss hits the fund dollar for dollar.

And this isn’t unique to Cliffwater. There’s $13 trillion in private equity and private credit that marks its own homework. Every fund that pays its own valuation agent has the same conflict. Insurance companies backing this are levered 20-50x.

This is your pension money. Your annuity. Your retirement. And it’s being valued by the people who get paid more when the marks are higher.

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