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ECP NetHappenings Donald Trump Portfolio Tracker

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Donald Trump Portfolio Tracker
https://x.com/TrumpsPortfolio
@TrumpsPortfolio
Tracking all of Trumps trades so I can get filthy rich

I CALLED IT, ANIMALS, AND YOU LAUGHED!!! Months ago I told you ICE would buy facilities DIRECTLY from the prison companies at north of $150,000 per bed — and I was WRONG, folks, it was BETTER!!! ICE just bought TWO facilities from CoreCivic — $CXW— for $1.47 BILLION!!! That’s $286,000 per bed in California City, $371,000 PER BED at Otay Mesa, $323,000 a bed COMBINED — DOUBLE what these things cost to build!!! Even I underestimated the beauty, and I NEVER underestimate!!!

AND WHO OWNS $CXW ??? DONALD TRUMP!!!
It’s RIGHT THERE in the disclosure, folks — the man holds CoreCivic AND GEO Group, the two companies running America’s ICE detention centers!!! Follow the bouncing ball: HE runs the immigration crackdown!!! HIS DHS just wired $1.47 billion to a company HE OWNS SHARES IN, at DOUBLE replacement cost!!! The buyer is his government, the seller is his portfolio, and the taxpayer is the ATM!!! That’s not a conflict of interest, that’s a CLOSED LOOP!!!

And the STRUCTURE is a masterpiece: DHS buys the buildings, but CoreCivic KEEPS OPERATING them under the same contracts!!! Sold the real estate, KEPT the revenue — like selling your house and the buyer pays YOU rent!!! Gain north of $1 BILLION on assets carried at PENNIES!!!

THE DE-LEVERING — exactly like I told you: $716 MILLION of debt GONE overnight!!! Credit facility, GONE!!! The 2027 notes, GONE!!! And that puts them under the covenant thresholds that unlock UNLIMITED BUYBACKS with the $400 million left over!!! Fewer shares, folks — and whose shares get more valuable??? DONALD’S!!!

AND THE SEQUEL IS COMING: CoreCivic says it’s in talks with ICE to sell MORE facilities!!! The machine runs forever: sign the orders, fill the beds, sell the buildings to yourself at double price, buy back the stock, watch the disclosure GLOW!!! One catch the animals should know — ICE can cancel those operating contracts anytime, so read the covenants before you chase!!! Do your own research, NOT advice!!! Is ANYBODY looking into this??? The SEC??? He APPOINTS the SEC!!! I called the trade, the price, AND the de-levering — GREATEST prison analyst in American history, maybe ever!!!

Trump’s financial disclosure is 927 pages long.

Buried inside it is a stock almost nobody talks about: McKesson.

Never heard of it? It touches 1 in 3 prescriptions filled in America. $403 BILLION in revenue last year. Bigger than Apple by sales.

And the story gets weirder the deeper you dig.

This company paid a record $150M DOJ fine for pumping opioids into communities.

Then got hit with an $8.1 BILLION settlement charge. It will be writing opioid checks until the 2040s.

The stock? Up 6x since 2019.

It keeps 1.5 cents of every dollar that flows through it. Sounds terrible.

It’s not.

Suppliers effectively finance the whole operation.

It’s an insurance float machine disguised as a trucking company, and it printed $5.4B in free cash flow last year.

It has bought back 40% of its own shares in a decade.

Here’s the part nobody’s saying out loud: its single biggest regulatory threat is Trump’s own drug pricing agenda.

MFN pricing consumed 95% of analyst questions on one earnings call.

The President’s portfolio holds the exact stock his policies are supposed to squeeze.

And the whole thing hangs on one thread: CVS is 24% of McKesson’s revenue.

That contract expires in June 2027. The negotiation is happening NOW.

I read 10 years of annual reports and 10 earnings calls, rebuilt the model, and valued it like a buy-side analyst.

Bear case: $630. Base: $860. Bull: $1,025. Stock today: $803.

The President’s advisers own the pipes of American medicine.

Full breakdown of why, and what it’s actually worth:

The President Owns the Pipes of American Medicine
The pipes of American medicine are in the portfolio. Here is how the money actually gets made, and what the business is worth at $803.

TRUMP PORTFOLIO TRACKER
JUL 16, 2026
https://x.com/TrumpsPortfolio/status/2077794040393744768

Buried somewhere in the 927 pages of the president’s 2025 annual financial disclosure, alongside the megacap tech names, the defense contractors, and the municipal bonds, sits a position in McKesson Corporation. It is not a name that generates headlines. It is a pharmaceutical distributor with reported operating margins near 1.5 percent, headquartered in Irving, Texas, that most Americans have never heard of despite the fact that it touches roughly one of every three prescriptions filled in this country.
A caveat before the analysis, because this newsletter tries to be honest about what the disclosures do and do not tell us. The filings report holdings in broad dollar ranges across eight investment accounts, and the White House maintains those accounts are run by professional advisers who do not regularly communicate with the president. So the interesting question is not what Trump sees in McKesson. It is why a professional money manager building a large, defensively tilted American equity portfolio in 2025 and 2026 would want this specific stock. That question has a genuinely good answer.
Whether the stock deserves $803 is a separate question, and answering it properly requires understanding a business model that almost everyone, including a fair number of people who own the stock, gets wrong.

ECP NetHappenings Trumps’ Gold coin is fake

U.S. Mint to make $1 gold coin with Trump’s face on it.

“The coin is already in production and will be available beginning this fall, a spokesperson for the Treasury Department told CBS News. It’s composed of non-precious metals, but will have a “gold-like finish,” the spokesperson said.”
The coin is fake gold. Ironic. And oh so fitting.

BREAKING: Senate Democrats just introduced a bill that bans Trump from pardoning himself for corruption. This corrupt clown could finally go to jail for a long time.

Lying under oath is a felony so is lying to Congress.
Committing multiple felonies during your job interview for Attorney General (the top law enforcement position in the country) is disqualifying.
Sen. Kennedy: ”
Other than to himself, who if anyone else, did Mr. Epstein traffic young women to?”
Blanche: “We did not have evidence as of now of other men that Epstein helped traffic to.”

Mike Collins’ son-in-law is a proud white nationalist who promotes Patriot Front, pushes antisemitic conspiracies about “Jewish Bolsheviks,” shares Nazi garbage, and says there’s “nothing wrong with White Nationalism.” This is the Georgia GOP Senate nominee. Birds of a feather.

Joe Carlasare @JoeCarlasare
As a litigator handling bitcoin and crypto cases, I’ve seen firsthand the messy collision between Bitcoin and the law. Assets seized and frozen on-chain. Grey areas where the law breaks down. So I wrote a Bitcoin thriller.
A lawyer gets handed the keys to billions in Bitcoin. His client vanishes. The cartel wants it. The FBI wants it. The legal system won’t save him.
UNCONFISCATABLE is up for pre-order on AMZN

WHY ? SHOULD WE CARE?
Tony Robbins reveals his AI agent created NFTs, sold them to other AI agents, & used the proceeds to buy itself a robot dog.

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas just announced he’s backing Lyn Alden’s new #Bitcoin treasury company. “I have learned two things: cash flow is king, and you cannot count on governments to protect the value of your money” “That is why I am backing this team.”
Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact https://www.lynalden.com/orange-juice/
Private equity generally aims to buy businesses, cut costs, and flip them in 4-7 years for a profit. As an alternative, we started a company to buy and hold businesses, and back them up with a bitcoin treasury: ‘ORANGE JUICE’ Raises $40 million to launch a permanent capital holding company backed by a BTC treasury. “It’s a company that acquires, improves, and permanently holds cash-flowing businesses, backed by a bitcoin treasury”

Pete Hegseth announced a new effort to annually screen service members testosterone levels & offer Testosterone Replacement Therapy (TRT) framing it as a way to keep troops on the “leading edge of lethality.”

FDA recalls 735,840 Pillsbury bread rolls after potential glass was found in the products.

FDA approves Merck’s new daily pill that can cut “bad” LDL cholesterol by up to 60%.

Mamdani proposes banning NYC landlords from requiring both proof of income & a credit check — while forcing landlords or brokers to pay any credit-check fees. 92% chance Mamdani freezes rents.

For the first time in more than a decade, no women are set to be promoted to the U.S. Navy’s one-star admiral rank in 2026.

You know when ransomware is called ‘Everest’, it has to be bad.
#Everest is a Russia-based Windows #ransomware & data-extortion operation. It encrypts files with the .everest extension & is linked to the #BlackByte ransomware.

It’s not that attackers from the #Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs are so smart. It’s that firms don’t change default #Cisco #infosec router settings. @mfa_russia searches for SNMP agents accepting common/default community strings & then takes control.

ESSAY Whitney Webb@_whitneywebb

Jul 1
We’ve been quiet recently because Mark Goodwin and I have been working to write the most comprehensive investigation into Polymarket’s origins and ambitions to date.

We found that Polymarket’s “official” origin story, that Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020 and then built “the company in his bathroom”, is a lie. Polymarket really started years earlier as another company called TokenBnk that was deeply tied to Israeli interests, specifically a crypto company founded by Benjamin Netanyahu’s niece and nephew. Coplan has actively tried to obfuscate this company from his story and it’s not the only thing either.

In Part 1 of this two-part series, we unravel the real history of Polymarket, directly connecting the company to Peter Thiel’s efforts to resurrect controversial DARPA programs from its now defunct Information Awareness Office. Polymarket appears to have been chosen by Thiel and his associates to succeed in resurrecting DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market where another Thiel-linked company, Augur, had previously failed.

Stay tuned for Part 2, where we explore the current influence of prediction markets and Polymarket, including how an insidious effort to have prediction markets replace representative democracy as a governance model is already being slowly implemented by the White House.

Read Part 1 here:

ECP NetHappenings Rethuglicans won’t Block Blanche

GREAT NEWS‼️‼️‼️‼️

Justice for @ejeancarroll
E. Jean Carroll just received Donald Trump’s $5 million — plus interest!
Despite Trump’s repeated sexist attempts to block Carroll from receiving the money, $5,625,005.48 was just disbursed to her.
HUGE CONGRATS!

Happy 2026 under the Trump administration.
STATUE OF LIBERTY DIARRHEA EDITION
When freedom hits a little too hard

I’m not sure who needs to hear this, but concealing a dude’s death in order to prevent an election is election fraud.

Todd Blanch is a Pedophile protector. Just an unbelievable and despicable hearing today! Blanche is Trumps lawyer! Period! He will never fight for us, the people and our Country. #BlockBlanche

Todd Blanche testified under oath that this administration has been the most transparent and has complied with the law regarding Jeffrey Epstein. Blanche believes Epstein had no client list, did not blackmail anyone, Pizzagate is a hoax, Israel was not involved, and there were no hidden cameras in Epstein’s homes. Todd Blanche has been endorsed by Pam Bondi to serve as the next Attorney General.
Karoline Leavitt calls the Epstein files a “classic Washington hoax”.

DISGUSTING 77 Former DOJ Officials Urge Senate To Confirm Todd Blanche As Attorney General

BLOCK BLANCHE WON’T FOLLOW THE CONSTITUTION
– HE REPRESENTS THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NOT THE IRS!!
– BLANCHE Spearheads of the Epstein Cover-up
– Created the Slush Fund for January 6ers
– Allowed tax dollars for The Ballroom

VOTE NO ON TODD BLANCHE FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL
Todd Blanche testified under oath that releasing the remaining Epstein files “would be against the law.”
“Why don’t you just release everything?”
“That would be against the law.”
Epstein Survivors at Blanche Hearing

Schiff: Who rejected the 25 defenses the IRS had to this sham lawsuit?
Who rejected them? Who said we’re just going to go with the president’s agreement and the slush fund?
Blanche: There was a lot of discussion internally.
Schiff: But you made the decision?
Blanche: We made the decision to settle the case, yes.

@DAGToddBlanche officially excusing cop assailants who invaded Congress, and yet the GOP is too cowardly to refuse this man who coddles criminals.
Charges officially dropped against Dominic Pezzola, the man who ignited the breach of the Capitol building with this stolen riot shield.

EVERY SINGLE Republican voted to merge the U.S military with Israel.
Republicans are America last

Trump says we can’t afford to fund healthcare because we’re fighting wars. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud. America has the money. The question is who they think deserves it. Nearly 8 million Americans have already lost coverage since 2025. #FundHealthcareNotWars

Republicans have been attacking Social Security and Medicare for decades. They cut taxes on the rich to bankrupt us and the pretend we’re broke while they spend billions on unnecessary wars.
Time to #FundHealthcareNotWars

Federal correctional officer charged with sexual abuse of inmate:
“Sexual abuse will be met with federal charges throughout our society; it has no place anywhere and victims deserve protection everywhere,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton.
@NewYorkFBI @JusticeOIG @OfficialFBOP

This is why Trump HATES @ossoff: He’s too good at this.
OSSOFF: Did the President pardon a man who worked with the Sinaloa Cartel to facilitate massive narco trafficking into the US?
CLAYTON: Word Salad… He was a convicted narco trafficker.
OSSOFF: Did the President of the United States pardon a convicted narco trafficker?
CLAYTON: Yes.

Actor Richard Gere on Trump: “He’s a rogue personality who’s destroyed so much. He’s hurt so many people and he’s caused so many deaths. But it will be over. He’s an old man. He’s a damaged personality. You can see he must’ve had a horrible childhood to be the man that he is now”

BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says all gold at Fort Knox is present and accounted for, with U.S. gold reserves now worth over $1 TRILLION. Then fucking show us. Independent audit – 1 year of interest payments on the debt.

President Trump is expected to meet with U.S. senators on Thursday to negotiate the Clarity Act’s ethics rules. The talks will focus on a provision that could restrict senior government officials, including Trump, from having personal crypto business interests.

Peter Schiff delivered one of his most revealing Bitcoin posts in years on Tuesday, admitting for the first time publicly that he regrets not buying Bitcoin when he first learned about it, A rare admission “Many people, myself included, regret not buying Bitcoin when they first learned about it,” Schiff wrote on x. The concession was brief and quickly redirected. “Soon, more people will regret not selling Bitcoin above $60,000 when they had the chance,” he added.
https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/2076804120300732897

ESSAY
Stanley Druckenmiller on how he lost $3 billion during the early 2000s tech bubble
He bought $6 billion of tech stocks right around the peak, and got cut down in half within the span of just six weeks.
Essay – So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m sellingall the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the net fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gun slingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.
So like around March I could feel it coming. I just – I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times during the same week I pick up a phone, don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again. but I already knew that.

BITCOIN

@dotkrueger Everybody is over-complicating this.
✅ buy bitcoin. HODL.
❌ buy call options on bitcoin
❌ buy call option spreads on bitcoin
❌ buy bitcoin and sell call options for yield
❌ buy and sell bitcoin based on TA
❌ buy and sell bitcoin based on “slow stochastics”
❌ buy and sell bitcoin based on “4 yr cycles”
❌ buy bitcoin in a tax inefficient c corp with debt
❌ buy bitcoin and issue pref shares in c corp
❌ buy real estate and use the cash flows to buy Bitcoin
❌ buy portfolio of cash positive biz and buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin Plebs Defending The Network (BIP-110)

Beautiful video from NO ONE on YouTube
BIP110 gets adopted or Bitcoin fails, an off-grid pleb miner’s perspective

CRYPTO

Alibaba has always been a Chinese asset infiltrating US data and government officials like Bill Hinman.
Remember, Dalia’s husband is David Blass who is partner at Simpson Thacher and was standing next to Jack Ma and Bill Hinman at the Alibaba IPO.
Alibaba Graup David W. Blass Partner
900 G Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20001
-While at Ropes & Gray, Dalia was also deeply involved with numerous SEC rulemakings, including the liquidity risk management….

SITUATION DETECTED: Anthropic has disclosed to the U.S. Government that Alibaba executed the largest known distillation attack on Claude to date, generating 28.8 million exchanges through nearly 25,000 fraudulent accounts between April and June 2026.

Japan’s SBI Shinsei Bank will let customers convert a portion of their deposit interest into $BTC, $ETH, or $XRP, launching as a pilot on June 10.

ESSAY

James Lavish @jameslavish Jan 14
Most people have never heard of the Cantillon Effect.
But once you understand it, you’ll see the world of investing differently.

What is it?

In the early 1700s, Richard Cantillon noticed a simple pattern:
When new money enters an economy, it doesn’t reach everyone at once.
And whoever gets it first benefits the most.

Here’s how it works today:

New liquidity enters through the Fed and through bank lending.
Both follow a similar pattern:

→ Markets and large balance sheets get first access
→ Large corporations and well-connected borrowers tap cheap credit next, they invest and expand at today’s prices
→ Asset prices tend to rise as new liquidity chases finite assets
→ Consumer prices often follow
→ Wages rise last, usually after purchasing power has already declined

Fed data shows how lopsided the playing field is:
– The top 10% hold nearly 90% of equities.
– The bottom 50% holds about 1%.

It’s a simple but powerful monetary transmission.

Understanding this won’t change the system.
But it might change how you think about where to store your savings.

For those of you who don’t know, I write all about topics like this every week in The Informationist. Last week, we dove deep on this one.

▓▓▓—▓▓▓—▓▓▓

ECP NetHappenings Internet Archive’s 2026 Rhapsody Reimagined

Internet Archive @internetarchive
CONGRATS AGAIN to “RHAPSODY, REIMAGINED” by Andrea Hale, FIRST PLACE in the Internet Archive’s 2026 Public Domain Remix Contest.
https://archive.org/details/rhapsody-reimagined
A dazzling reimagining of King of Jazz (1930) set to Gershwin’s Rhapsody in Blue. An aesthetic triumph. Andrea Hale is an artist working in animation & video editing. Her work emphasizes rhythm, repetition, and texture, using collage to recontextualize culturally established works by treating them as raw material rather than finished objects.
#PublicDomain #PublicDomainDay

A gentle reminder from Ernest Hemingway
Try to learn to breathe deeply, really to taste food when you eat, and when you sleep, really to sleep. Try as much as possible to be wholly alive with all your might, and when you laugh, laugh like hell. And when you get angry, get good and angry. Try to be alive. You will be dead soon enough.

Half the country believes, in one form or another, that we should love our neighbor.
The other half is MAGA.

The “Save America Act” is voter suppression dressed up as patriotism.
It targets naturalized citizens, trans Americans, tribal citizens, and natural disaster victims with extra barriers. Don’t let the name fool you.

NEWS BYTES

@krassenstein FUN FACT:
If you fly from Fukuoka, Japan to Palm Beach, FL your ticket reads FUK-DJT

Last night Senate Dems blocked passage of $1.15 Trillion NDAA over Iran War & Israel
– Trump’s Iran war has no congressional authorization, no strategy, no exit. dems refuse to rubber-stamp it
– Also oppose new provisions expanding US-Israel military/tech cooperation

Vint Cerf is working on a plan to unleash AI agents on the open internet

Democrat Faye Thomas just won her race for Mayor of Abbeville, South Carolina by a stunning 37-point landslide. Abbeville is a town that voted for Donald Trump in 2024. A blue tsunami is inbound.

@watchernewsx
Opinion:
1/3 Diversification is the one piece of advice every financial institution agrees on, right up until their own balance sheet is under pressure. Then suddenly concentration in short-duration Treasuries, money-market funds, or house-brand products is perfectly fine.
2/3: The rule applies to clients. Not to the house.
3/3: This is not a new pattern. It is a structural feature of advice that is also a sales channel. The conflict does not make advisors villainous. It makes the incentive architecture broken, and nobody in a position to fix it has much reason to.

OpenAI researcher Miles Wang in talks to launch AI drug discovery startup valued at $2B

MONEY BYTES

Bitcoin $65,330 as of this minute 11:30 am.
“Bitcoin is about more than price appreciation.”

Bitcoin’s edge:
🔹 Fixed supply
🔹 Instant liquidity
🔹 Global portability
🔹 Long-term wealth preservation

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says regulators should work together on Genius Act rules to avoid regulatory arbitrage. “What I don’t think we want is any kind of regulatory arbitrage, where firms are trying to game who’s got the lightest regulation.”

New York becomes first US state to halt construction of new large data centers.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Vanguard, and NYSE to participate in trial tokenizing US stocks and Treasuries.

US and UK announce joint plan to support cross-border tokenized assets and crypto stablecoins.

Stripe and Advent offer to buy PayPal $PYPL for $53 billion, Reuters reports.

South Korea to include crypto under planned state asset management law.

Japan officially passes law recognizing crypto as “financial assets.”

UGH! US Mint to begin striking new $1 gold coin featuring Drumpf for America’s 250th anniversary.

If @Bitcoin is the train, then the Lightning Network is the rail that helps it move value faster and more efficiently! Lightning can make Bitcoin payments feel closer to instant compared to traditional on-chain transactions. Send and receive money in USDT, USDC, and Bitcoin over Lightning, straight from your backend.
Lightning Enable Store https://store.lightningenable.com/
The first AI-agent commerce storefront. Premium merchandise, Lightning payments only.
Use the free Lightning Enable MCP, give your agent a tiny Lightning budget, and buy a real shirt or hat: No card. No account.
Cart → 402 invoice → pay → claim → ship.

ESSAY: Congress just got CAUGHT running the BIGGEST insider trading scheme EVER. ~ Ian Cooper

https://x.com/InsiderTrackers/status/2077394074211070326/photo/1

One congressman’s net worth went from $800,000 to $30 MILLION…

Here’s what just got uncovered:
The Foreign Policy Journal published its findings on July 14.
It reviewed 11,016 congressional stock purchases across 16 months.
6,170 of those trades were in companies the same lawmakers were actively voting on.
That is 56% of every purchase Congress disclosed.
The same lawmakers who write the tax code trade the companies it affects.
The same lawmakers who set defense budgets trade the contractors getting paid.
None of it is illegal.
That is the real story.
Representative Ro Khanna of California is the most active trader in Congress.
He filed over 4,900 trades in the past year alone.
His net worth grew from about $800,000 to more than $30 million, while he sat on committees overseeing the sectors he was trading.
Khanna publicly supports banning trading by members of Congress.
He also keeps trading.
Now look at the fight over AI chip exports.
Nvidia sits at the center of every hearing on chip exports to China.
Every hearing moves the stock.
Representative Daniel Meuser of Pennsylvania filed five separate partial Nvidia sales while colleagues drafted the export rules that would move it.
One of his sales stayed hidden from the public for 36 days.
The law allows up to 45.
The rule built to stop this behavior is the same rule protecting it.
The same pattern shows up in banking, pharma, energy, and defense.
Retail investors do not get 45 days to sell before news breaks.
Retail investors do not get closed door briefings on pending regulation.
Retail investors go to prison for trades Congress files as routine paperwork.
A bill to ban this stalled in the House in January.
A Senate version stalled in March.
Dozens more sit right beside them.
The penalty for filing late is a $200 fine.
Not one member has ever been criminally prosecuted under this law in 13 years.
86% of Americans, across every party, want this banned.
The institution refusing to pass that ban is the same institution that would lose the trades.
Not one insider trade.
Not one bad actor.
6,170 disclosed purchases, filed openly, in companies the same lawmakers were about to legislate, inside a country where doing this without a seat in Congress is a federal crime.

ESSAY Logan Weaver @LogWeaver 7/15/26

IBM just had the WORST day in its 115 year history.
Worse than Black Monday in 1987.
$68.8 BILLION gone. In a single session.
All because of a number most people would call small…
Here’s what actually happened, and why it matters far beyond IBM:
“We did not adapt and move quickly enough.”
That is what CEO Arvind Krishna wrote to shareholders before Tuesday’s open.
By the closing bell, the stock had dropped 25%.
Coming into Tuesday, IBM was down just 4.8% for the year.
By the close, it was down 26%.
One trading session repriced the entire year.
The revenue miss that triggered it was 3.7%.
IBM reported preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2 billion against expectations of $17.86 billion.
A miss that small erased a quarter of a Dow company’s value in one afternoon.
Krishna’s letter explained why.
“In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.”
In plain English, big customers stopped closing software deals to hoard memory chips instead.
The pipeline collapsed in three weeks.
Now zoom out.
Oracle is down 33% this year.
Microsoft has shed 20%.
Accenture is off 50%.
Every legacy enterprise tech company is bleeding.
On the other side of the same trade, the memory makers are surging.
Micron has surged more than 200% this year.
SK Hynix just raised $26.5 billion in the biggest foreign IPO ever on a US exchange, and popped 13% on its first day.
Same corporate budget.
Completely different destination.
Financial media is covering this as an IBM problem.
It is not.
The real tell is buried in the same report that crashed the stock.
IBM’s software revenue grew 5% that quarter.
Infrastructure revenue fell 7%.
Software is still selling.
Deals are still closing.
They just are not closing fast enough.
Corporate treasurers are rushing to lock in memory before prices jump again.
This is a story about corporate tech budgets.
When AI hardware gets scarce, the money moves.
Software vendors used to sit at the top of the spending list.
Now they sit behind the hardware line.
If a company cannot lock in memory this quarter, everything else waits.
That is not falling demand.
That is a company picking what to pay for first.
IBM just showed the market what losing that pick looks like.
Retail sees a legacy giant crash and calls it a bargain.
Big investors see money moving in real time.
That gap is where 25% moves get made.
You do not need to guess which side you are on.
You need a system built to follow the money, not the headlines.
Surmount does exactly that.
Rules based strategies, ready to pick and automate.