BITCOIN
Fractional Reserve Banking is Inherently a House of Cards.
The use case is money that cannot be arbitrarily debased if you’re worried about volume than lower your position size.
Just saying ……
Some think taking an early retirement package to rescue a fiat-based pension now, that you then roll over into a Bitcoin IRA to avoid cap gains, isn’t as crazy as it sounds to normal people.
A hypothetical Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF approval isn’t just about price. It’s also about legitimizing the entire Bitcoin space. Bitcoin miners, custodians, exchanges, payments companies, etc are all way undervalued. There will be an almost instant 20-100% legitimacy premium. The more levered to Bitcoin, the better. Funds like GBTC, companies with large holdings like MSTR, and miners like Iris Energy and Cipher with massive operating leverage at higher spot prices will all benefit.
Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine
$800 billion Standard Chartered Bank says spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals “are likely to come sooner than expected.”
Plan B says
Bitcoin valuation based on difficulty (hashrate) increased to $35k yesterday. IMO this could mean that, apart from possible black swans or short term volatility, based on $/kWh-arbitrage fundamentals … BTC will never go below $35k ever again.
Dylan LeClaire says
Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It’s not just about immediate reactions or flows
It’s about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term.
In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin.
MASSIVE…. except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities.
$100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation…
Large institutional investors don’t purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades.
A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held. https://www.massmutual.com/efiles/corp/pdfs/ms1003.pdf
The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn’t a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it’s a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock’s door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure. The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%.
“But the volatility!” Again, it’s a misunderstanding of time horizon.
A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don’t plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio…
– No, the orange coin is not going away.
– No, it did not die when FTX collapsed.
– Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before.
– Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality.
– No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE.
– Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term.
Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around ‘energy usage’ and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy:
– Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2023/11/bitcoin-could-support-renewable-energy-development
– Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4634256
– From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, https://resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf
The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It’s not about the ETF, it’s about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won’t happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway.
Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing.
Welcome.
POLITICS
Robert Reich @RBReich
How MAGA and the oligarchy feed off each other:
1. The oligarchy’s objective is to hoard wealth
2. It uses MAGA to stoke hatred and divide us
3. Oligarchy siphons off more wealth while we’re distracted
4. MAGA uses the oligarchy’s money for campaigns
DA Fani Willis is going scorched Earth & does not intend to offer plea deals to Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, & Mark Meadows, preferring to have them stand trial, according to new reporting. Accountability matters & so glad DA Willis isn’t letting them get away. So good.
A few points about the revelations from Mike Pence today: 1) he’s going to be a killer witness against Trump — the Boy Scout VP saying he told him repeatedly well before 1/6 that there was no fraud and Trump at one point seemed to acknowledge that he knew;
ECP NetHappenings Contumacious means Obstinately Disobedient
“No Person shall be a Senator … who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State.” – US Constitution, Art. I, Sec. 3
Tommy Tuberville reps Alabama – but lives in Florida
Josh Hawley reps Missouri – but lives in Virginia
They’re both violating the Constitution.
@MaryLTrump
UNBELIEVABLE: The new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson received illegal money from at least one Russian oligarch. In 2018, Johnson received campaign contributions from “American Ethane,” a company that was 88% owned by three Russian nationals. Johnson’s received at least three checks, each for $6100, from the company. The campaign says he returned the money after he was exposed. But he’s still racking up favors for Russians. -Voted against the 2022 Ukraine Supplemental Appropriation. -Voted for Amendment 22 to HR 2670 which would have prohibited all security assistance for Ukraine.