The Next Industrial Revolution A “crisis of abundance”

Abundance of workers—both those made of cells and those made of bits—could create a glut of labor. The machines may render many humans as redundant as so many vintage washing machines.  Once again, what once seems like abundance will instead be over-supply: The machines may invent their makers out of work.
 

The Next Industrial Revolution
An interview with the Economist columnist Ryan Avent on his new book about how technology will change the labor force
By DEREK THOMPSON
Sep 6 2016
<http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/the-next-industrial-revolution/498779/>
A “crisis of abundance” initially seems like a paradox. After all, abundance is the ultimate goal of technology and economics. But consider the early history of the electric washing machine. In the 1920s, factories churned them out in droves. (With the average output of manufacturing workers rising by a third between 1923 and 1929, making more washing machines was relatively cheap.) But as the decade ended, factories saw they were making many more than American households demanded. Companies cut back their output and laid off workers even before the stock market crashed in 1929. Indeed, some economists have said that the oversupply of consumer goods like washing machines may have been one of the causes of the Great Depression.
What initially looked like abundance was really something more harmful: overproduction. In economics, as in anything, too much of a good thing can be problematic.
That sentiment is one of the central theses of The Wealth of Humans, a new book by the Economist columnist Ryan Avent about how technology is changing the nature of work. In the next few years, self-driving cars, health-care robots, machine learning, and other technology will complement many workers in the office. Counting both humans and machines, the world’s labor force will be able to do more work than ever before. But this abundance of workers—both those made of cells and those made of bits—could create a glut of labor. The machines may render many humans as redundant as so many vintage washing machines.
Once again, what once seems like abundance will instead be over-supply: The machines may invent their makers out of work.
Last week, I spoke with Avent about his book, how his theories might help to explain the 2016 election, and the future of working. The following conversation has been edited for clarity and concision.
Derek Thompson: In classic Economist style, your title, The Wealth of Humans, is doing double or triple duty. First, it’s a play on Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, and indeed there’s a lot of Smith in here. Second, it’s a book about the most common definition of wealth, money, and how it might be earned and distributed in the future. Third, it’s about Merriam-Webster’s second definition of wealth, which is a surfeit, a surplus, and your argument is that we may be entering a world with too many workers. Anything I’m missing?
Ryan Avent: Those were the ones I had in mind. There may be others lurking.
Thompson: There is an ongoing debate about whether technological growth is accelerating, as economists like Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (the authors of The Second Machine Age) insist, or slowing down, as the national productivity numbers indicate. Where do you come down?
Avent: I come down squarely in the Brynjolfsson and McAfee camp and strongly disagree with economists like Robert Gordon, who have said that growth is basically over. I think the digital revolution is probably going to be as important and transformative as the industrial revolution. The main reason is machine intelligence, a general-purpose technology that can be used anywhere, from driving cars to customer service, and it’s getting better very, very quickly. There’s no reason to think that improvement will slow down, whether or not Moore’s Law continues.
I think this transformative revolution will create an abundance of labor. It will create enormous growth in [the supply of workers and machines], automating a lot of industries and boosting productivity. When you have this glut of workers, it plays havoc with existing institutions.
I think we are headed for a really important era in economic history. The Industrial Revolution is a pretty good guide of what that will look like. There will have to be a societal negotiation for how to share the gains from growth. That process will be long and drawn out. It will involve intense ideological conflict, and history suggests that a lot will go wrong.
Thompson: Even I would admit that is a weird time to predict the end of work, considering that the unemployment rate has been at or under 5 percent all year, the private sector in the U.S. has created jobs for record-high 77 consecutive months, and wages are actually rising at their fastest rate since the Great Recession.
So what is the best evidence that your prediction is plausible?
Avent: I would say the best evidence comes from the wage growth numbers. I know we’ve experienced an uptick in recent months, but we’re seven years into the recovery and still well short of the level of nominal wage growth we would expect, even compared to recent disappointing recoveries. In the bigger picture, for a lot of middle-skilled workers, especially men, you have stagnating wages for several decades. Apart from the top 1 percent, a lot of people are having a lousy time.
If you look at the experience of rich countries across the world, you see there is a tradeoff between wage growth, productivity, and employment growth. Employment in Britain is at an all-time high, and wage growth there has underperformed America and most of Europe. This suggests that the main way that employers are using people in countries like the U.K. is to use them to do low-productivity work.
Thompson: There is a familiar story of technology and the labor force that one might call the “we used to” story. We used to work on farms, we used to work in textiles, we used to work in factories … What’s the next chapter of the “we used to” story? What sector currently employing a lot of Americans is the lowest-hanging fruit for disruption?
Avent: Driving is certainly an area where we’ve seen more rapid progress than I would have guessed. Truck drivers, bus drivers, and train drivers have pretty good pay and those account for millions of jobs. Most importantly, there seems to be an interest among companies employing those workers to bring [the tech that would replace humans] forward. In the long run, I’m optimistic for technology to transform health care, but that’s a harder sector to disrupt.
Machine intelligence will be applied in ways we cannot imagine yet. One example is talking. Today, if you have a problem with a car company, you might end up conversing with a bot over the phone. Those are conversations that we thought weren’t automatable that are now. We used to employ a lot of people to talk to people and people have those conversations with bots.
[snip]

WHO GOT RICH OFF THE STUDENT DEBT CRISIS

America’s total student debt is worth more than Mexico’s entire GDP. Here’s how we got here:

https://www.revealnews.org/article/who-got-rich-off-the-student-debt-crisis/
42 million people owe $1.3 trillion in student debt. It’s a profit center for Wall Street and the government. Here’s how we got into this mess.
A generation ago, Congress privatized a student loan program intended to give more Americans access to higher education.
In its place, lawmakers created another profit center for Wall Street and a system of college finance that has fed the nation’s cycle of inequality. Step by step, Congress has enacted one law after another to make student debt the worst kind of debt for Americans – and the best kind for banks and debt collectors.
Today, just about everyone involved in the student loan industry makes money off students – the banks, private investors, even the federal government.
https://archive.is/QtNR3

Sven Giegold, who is a founder of the EU Leaks project

http://www.taxjustice.net/2016/09/28/eu-leaks-new-platform-whistleblowers/
a new initiative called EU Leaks: EUleaks is a European platform where you can submit information in a highly secure and anonymous way. Transparency and accountability are essential for democratic governance. The EUleaks project provides a platform for increasing transparency by providing a new tool for information in the public interest to be made available. EUleaks offers a venue for the realisation of freedom of expression as a fundamental right.
 

#Privacy Never use #Apple to Txt Anyone

APPLE LOGS YOUR IMESSAGE CONTACTS — AND MAY SHARE THEM WITH POLICE

https://theintercept.com/2016/09/28/apple-logs-your-imessage-contacts-and-may-share-them-with-police/
APPLE PROMISES THAT your iMessage conversations are safe and out of reach from anyone other than you and your friends. But according to a document obtained by The Intercept, your blue-bubbled texts do leave behind a log of which phone numbers you are poised to contact and shares this (and other potentially sensitive metadata) with law enforcement when compelled by court order.
Every time you type a number into your iPhone for a text conversation, the Messages app contacts Apple servers to determine whether to route a given message over the ubiquitous SMS system, represented in the app by those déclassé green text bubbles, or over Apple’s proprietary and more secure messaging network, represented by pleasant blue bubbles, according to the document. Apple records each query in which your phone calls home to see who’s in the iMessage system and who’s not.
This log also includes the date and time when you entered a number, along with your IP address — which could, contrary to a 2013 Apple claim that “we do not store data related to customers’ location,” identify a customer’s location. Apple is compelled to turn over such information via court orders for systems known as “pen registers” or “tap and trace devices,” orders that are not particularly onerous to obtain, requiring only that government lawyers represent they are “likely” to obtain information whose “use is relevant to an ongoing criminal investigation.” Apple confirmed to The Intercept that it only retains these logs for a period of 30 days, though court orders of this kind can typically be extended in additional 30-day periods, meaning a series of monthlong log snapshots from Apple could be strung together by police to create a longer list of whose numbers someone has been entering.
<snip>

ESSA: Education Department Releases Guidance on Teachers

The U.S. Department of Education Tuesday released a blueprint to help states and districts make the most of out of more than $2 billion in federal money for teacher support, preparation, training, and more.
The new federal guidance also walks states and districts through changes to this pot of money—known as Title II—under the brand new Every Student Succeeds Act. (More on the changes to teacher quality in ESSA here.)
The department recommends that states and districts use the funds to make sure that teachers are supported from the time they enter educator training programs, through their early years of teaching, and as they take on leadership positions, including the principalship.
And, the guidance reminds states and districts that they have to reach out to teachers, support personnel, community partners, and others when figuring out how to use their Title II funding.
“Educators play a critical role in securing our nation’s economic future and preserving the promise of an excellent education for all children, especially those who have been historically underserved,” said U.S. Secretary of John B. King, Jr., in a statement. “We don’t just want educators to be part of the change; we need them to lead it.”

Teachers and Equity

The guidance encourages states and districts to use Title II funds to make sure that all kids have access to an effective teacher, and to make sure teachers in high-needs schools get access to extra supports.
For instance, states and districts could use the money to:

  • Give bonuses, pay raises, and other perks to attract excellent teachers to high-needs schools.
  • Offer extra pay to teachers who teach in high needs subjects, or teach special populations, such as English-language learners.
  • Create “co-teaching” classrooms in high-needs schools, where beginning teachers work alongside a more experienced educator.
  • Address working conditions in high-needs schools, or give teachers who work in them extra time to plan and collaborate.

Many school districts use their Title II money to cut down on class size. That’s allowable under ESSA, the department says, as long as there is evidence to back up the approach.

Educator Development

School districts across the country are trying to create so-called “career ladders” for teachers, and the department has some suggestions on how to use Title II money to make that happen. For instance, states and districts can:

  • Use federal teacher quality funds to support preparation programs at traditional universities, but also for alternative-preparation programs, and teacher residency programs.
  • Create or choose “academies” to prepare teachers, using funding under ESSA. (More on that below). States that want to go that route must first choose an “authorizer” that will supervise the academies and hold them accountable.
  • Create mentorship programs for new teachers
  • Hire or support “principal supervisors” to help school leaders in their work
  • Train principals, including giving them time to learn from each other.

Teacher Evaluation

States and districts can also use their money to create teacher-evaluation systems, but perhaps just as important, they don’t have to do that. Teacher evaluations based on student outcomes were a huge priority for the Obama administration during its first six or so years in office. It championed the policy through Race to the Top and No Child Left Behind waivers. Under ESSA, states don’t have to create teacher-evaluation systems that rely in part on student test scores, but they can if they want, or they can use their federal teacher quality money to craft other types of evaluation systems.
The department recommends creating evaluation systems that take into account multiple measures, including student academic growth, but also observations, and parent/student surveys. Evaluations should also be valid and reliable, and teachers should be clear on what they are being measured on, and get to see their entire evaluation, not just the overall rating.

Funding Changes

There are some changes to the way Title II money flows under ESSA. For instance, states can now reserve up to 2 percent of their total Title II funding at the state level to help prepare teachers and principals to work in high-needs schools. And they can reserve up to 3 percent of districts’ allocation for principal support. This chart, included with the guidance, illustrates the breakdown of the funding.
Title II snip.PNG
Importantly, states and districts may not have as much Title II money to play around with during the 2017-18 school year, the first year of ESSA implementation, as they do right now. The program is currently getting about $2.3 billion, but spending bills pending in the House and Senate seek to cut it down, from just over $2 billion to $1.9 billion, respectively.
Of course, Title II isn’t the only pot of federal money for teacher quality. In fact, the department doled out $5.1 in Teacher Quality Partnership grants to teacher-preparation programs that use a “residency model”—where prospective teachers take courses but also teach alongside a veteran educator—and other programs with a strong, “hands-on” focus.
The winners this year included a cadre of rural programs: Coppin State University, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, the University of New Hampshire, and the University of West Alabama.
Want more? U.S. Secretary of Education John B. King, Jr., is hosting a live video chat with educators on Tuesday night to talk about educator support. You can check it out here.

The Neuroscience of Drumming: Researchers Discover the Secrets of Drumming & The Human Brain Open Culture

The Neuroscience of Drumming: Researchers Discover the Secrets of Drumming & The Human Brain Open Culture
http://www.openculture.com/2015/08/the-neuroscience-of-drumming.html
Sabina Magliocco, Ph.D., Professor of Anthropology, grew up in Italy and the United States.  She has published on religion, folklore, foodways, festival, witchcraft and Neo-Paganism in Europe and the United States.
http://www.csun.edu/~sm32646/

Largest DDoS attack ever delivered by botnet of hijacked IoT devices

Largest DDoS attack ever delivered by botnet of hijacked IoT devices
Attack proved too draining for Akamai to keep fighting it
Securing the internet of things should become a major priority now that an army of compromised devices – perhaps 1 million strong – has swamped one of the industry’s top distributed denial-of-service protection services.
A giant botnet made up of hijacked internet-connected things like cameras, lightbulbs, and thermostats has launched the largest DDoS attack ever against a top security blogger, an attack so big Akamai had to cancel his account because defending it ate up too many resources.
It wasn’t that Akamai couldn’t mitigate the attack – it did so for three days – but doing so became too costly, so the company made a business decision to cut the affected customer loose, says Andy Ellis the company’s chief security officer.
The delivery network has dropped protection for the Krebs on Security blog written by Brian Krebs after an attack delivering 665Gbps of traffic overwhelmed his site Tuesday. The size of the attack was nearly double that of any Akamai had seen before.
–snip–
KrebsOnSecurity moves to [Google’s] Project Shield for protection against DDoS attack censorship

http://www.networkworld.com/article/3123806/security/krebsonsecurity-moves-to-project-shield-for-protection-against-ddos-attack-censorship.html

  His site has been protected by Prolexic, which was acquired by
Akamai; yet after sustained attacks were hitting his site with
about 620 Gbps of junk data, Akamai opted to stop providing
Krebs with pro bono protection service; protecting his site
was affecting the company’s paying customers.  Akamai, which
Krebs does not fault for dropping him, claimed a sustained
DDoS attack against Krebs’ site could have cost millions of
dollars to mitigate. Akamai told The Boston Globe that the
scale of attack on Krebs “stunned its engineers” since it was
“almost twice as much traffic as Akamai had ever seen in a
previous attack.” … Yet Krebs needed to bring his site back
up, so he opted for Project Shield which offers “free,
unlimited protection.” The service is built on Google Cloud
Platform in order “to protect news sites and free expression
from DDoS attacks on the web.”

Data Crisis: Who Owns Your Medical Records?

Data Crisis: Who Owns Your Medical Records? Electronic records are increasingly hard to keep secure and store, especially with the proliferation of patient-generated data
http://www.sandiegomagazine.com/San-Diego-Magazine/October-2016/Top-Doctors-2016-Innovation-in-Health-and-Medicine/Data-Crisis-Who-Owns-Your-Medical-Records/
your medical records are the property of hospitals, doctors, and health systems. Except in New Hampshire, where ownership rights are assigned to the patient, no other states recognize the individual’s right of control and ownership of their medical data.  Now that our records are electronic, which was intended to make them eminently portable and sharable, a very serious unintended problem has erupted. In the past year, more than 100 million Americans have had their electronic medical records hacked from health systems. For example, this June, Banner Health in Phoenix had a breach of 3.7 million electronic medical records.  Many hospitals throughout the country have been held hostage for their health information system by hackers and have had to pay ransom to regain control of their patients’ medical data.

#Allergy $30 #DIY #Epipen download instruction packet

EpiPencil hack costs a fraction of EpiPen

EpiPencil hack costs a fraction of EpiPen (exclusive)


Hacker group creates $30 DIY Epipen to expose corporate greed and save lives
https://www.minds.com/blog/view/625077755582623755
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[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldFFJRdhVs8]

Four Thieves Vinegar have created and uploaded the plans for the simple version, called the Epipencil.  Also spring loaded, the parts are gathered over the counter.  The epinephrine will still need to be acquired with a prescription.
Download the Instruction DIY EpiPencil instruction packet
http://www.fourthievesvinegar.org/download/#epipencil
Four Thieves Vinegar continues their mission to make medicine free for everyone.  Crowd sourcing and the internet kind of proves that corporate, top-down power structures are busted.  The human race works better as a team.
 
Mylan’s EpiPen Pretax Profits 60% Higher Than Number Told to Congress Company applied 37.5% tax rate onto the profits it revealed to a House committee hearing last week
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mylan-clarifies-epipen-profit-figures-it-provided-to-congress-last-week-1474902801
Mylan said Monday that the profit figure presented by Ms. Bresch included taxes, which the company didn’t clearly convey to Congress. The company substantially reduced its calculation of EpiPen profits by applying the statutory U.S. corporate tax rate of 37.5%—five times Mylan’s overall tax rate last year.
Without the tax-related reduction, Mylan’s profits on the EpiPen two-pack were about 60% higher than the figure given to Congress, or $166, it said in a new regulatory filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission Monday. The company said it expects to sell about 4 million EpiPen two-packs in the U.S. this year.
 

EpiPen outrage: Silicon Valley engineers figure real cost to make lifesaving auto-injector two-pack — about $8
By TRACY SEIPEL
Oct 1 2016
<http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/01/epipen-outrage-silicon-valley-engineers-figure-true-cost-to-make-lifesaving-auto-injector-about-10/>
In his 93 years, Bob Wallace has seen some product-pricing doozies over the decades, but the nonstop national furor over the stratospheric price hikes for EpiPens — now retailing above $700 for a two-pack — was the final shot.
“I’m a cheapskate,” the Saratoga inventor and businessman proudly proclaimed. “And this is not rocket science. People should be aware of what they’re getting hooked for.”
So in time-honored Silicon Valley tradition — and piqued by the EpiPen-maker Mylan’s corporate tagline “Seeing Is Believing” — Wallace and Roland Krevitt, a veteran Scotts Valley manufacturing and tooling consultant, set out to demystify the cost to produce the EpiPen, piece by piece.
The auto-injector delivers a lifesaving dose of adrenaline to treat serious allergic reactions to everything from bee stings to food.
Hunched over his vintage Shopsmith table saw in his garage, Wallace sliced open the plastic injector to begin reverse-engineering the device. Then it was Krevitt’s turn to break out his gram scale and caliper to crunch the costs for molding and manufacturing the nozzle, needle, syringe, springs, safety cap — and 0.3 mg of epinephrine.
Their startling estimate of the cost for a two-pack of EpiPens: $8.02.
And that even included the bright-yellow box.
“Talk about sleight of hand,” said Krevitt, who isn’t naive to R&D, marketing, distribution and other costs that go into brand name pharmaceuticals — but is still floored by what he figures is a 90-plus-fold markup over the retail price. “These guys put a magician to shame.”
From Capitol Hill to the corner drug store, the pharmaceutical giant Mylan is the latest drugmaker to withstand a public lashing over skyrocketing drug prices. While politicians and patients demand explanations, pointing out the same drugs are sold for a fraction of the price in other countries, policy experts and drug makers blame an American health care system built on an ever-expanding pool of middlemen whose piece of the action is driving up the final bill.
Since Mylan bought the EpiPen in 2007, the device’s wholesale price has soared from $100 to more than $600 for a now-standard two-pack.
The retail price is even steeper — the list price at CVS pharmacy, for example, is $733. Mylan insists most patients pay less than $50 out of pocket for a two-pack, though critics say insurers pass the higher wholesale drug costs along to consumers in other ways.
But what does it really cost to make?
[snip]
 
From: Synthesis:Law and TechnologyDate: Saturday, October 1, 2016
Subject: Re EpiPen outrage: Silicon Valley engineers figure real cost to make lifesaving auto-injector two-pack – about $8
Mylan inherited the paperwork so that is pretty much a non issue.  As for sterile injectables, the cost of disposable needles is miniscule compared to the cost of the pens today.  As for insurance, I’m no expert but if they can insure disposable needles and
insure pure injectible insulin then they can insure an epi-pen like device.
The proof ?  come to Canada where the cost is a fraction of what people pay in the US.  Even the expensive online pharmacies where you pay for convenience and privacy sell the epi pen for a lot less.
So the argument that it costs a lot more than 8 bucks seems lacking.